Association between internet search trends and the number of confirmed monkeypox cases: a multinational study in ten countries

Abstract

Background: Smallpox is a zoonotic infection that has been distributed worldwide. The search for information on the Internet reflects the interest and awareness of the population about health. Aim:  To determine the correlation between the relative volume of internet searches and the number of confirmed cases of smallpox in ten countries. Methods: An observational, analytical, retrospective study was conducted using the Google Trends (GT™) tool to find the relative search volume (RSV) on monkeypox from January 1 to August 31, 2022 using search terms in the official language of the 10 countries with the highest number of cases on those dates, as recorded by Our World in Data. To establish the relationship between RSV and new cases per day, Spearman's correlation was used with a significance level (p ≤ 0.05). Results: A strong Pearson correlation coefficient was found in Brazil (Rp=0.562, p=0.001), and weak in countries like Germany (Rp=0.281, p=0.004), United States (Rp=0.255, p=0.008), Spain (Rp=0. 122, p=0.213), Peru (Rp=0.120, p=0.333), Canada (Rp=0.116, p=0.238), France (Rp=0.095, p=0.335), United Kingdom (Rp=0.085, p=0.362), Portugal (Rp=0.024, p=0.805) and Netherlands (Rp=0.067, p=0.497). Conclusion: Our study showed that RSV had a positive relationship with the number of new cases of smallpox. Also, a strong correlation coefficient was observed in Brazil, while the rest of the countries showed a weak correlation coefficient.