Evolution of the virulence of SARS CoV-2 in Chile

Abstract

Background: The evolution of virulence has aroused the interest of evolutionary biology for decades. It is about co-evolution between pathogens and their hosts. Different hypotheses have been put forward for the evolution of virulence, including evolution with a virulence-transmission trade-off. Aim: To study the evolution of the fatality rate and transmission of SARS CoV-2 in Chile, with the hypothesis that there has been a trade-off to a decrease in lethality and an increase in its transmission during the epidemic. Results: The daily fatality rate in Chile clearly decreased. Although no correlation was found between daily fatality rate and effective reproductive number, the maximum effective reproductive number associated with each viral variant showed a clear increase from the appearance of the γ variant onwards (δ and O) in Chile. Conclusion: This study shows an evolution of virulence with a virulence-transmission trade-off. This can be largely explained by viral evolution, but the change in lethality can also be affected by non-pharmacological and pharmacological interventions carried out by the human population.