Predictive model preparation for surgical wound infection in adult patients undergoing total hip arthroplasty in high complexity hospital for years 2012 and 2014

Abstract

Introduction: Operative wound infections of patients undergoing total hip arthroplasty have an incidence from 2% to 5%, generating impact on hospital stay, resource use, prolonged antibiotic therapy, including temporary or definitive sequelae. Objective: To generate a predictive model for surgical wound infection in patients undergoing total hip arthroplasty between 2012 and 2014 at the High Complexity Hospital. Material and Method: Cohort of patients with total hip arthroplasty. A description of the epidemiological variables was made and a predictive model was generated by means of logistic regression. Results: 441 patients were analyzed. The predictive model obtained included the variables: days of post-operative stay (OR 1.11 IC95% [1.03 - 1.20]), transfusion of at least one unit of red blood cells (OR 3.13 IC95% [1.17 - 10.86]), diagnosis of previous depression to surgery (OR 5.75 IC95% [1.32 - 25.32], non-compliance with antibioprophylaxis administration time (OR 5.46 IC95% [1.68 - 17.78], P < 0.001) and pseudo R2 = 0.2293. Score point of 13 points with sensitivity 44.4%, specificity of 91.6%, LR (+) 5.29, LR (-) 0.61, 1 to 6 points “low risk”, 7 to 12 points “medium risk”, 13 to 18 points “high risk”, from 19 points as “maximum risk”. Conclusion: the model presents a good predictive capacity of operative wound infection and adequately represents the cohort under study.